MBS RECAP: Quiet Trading Week Leaves Focus on Brexit Weekend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was a throw-away day for the bond market. Yields matched their narrowest trading range of the week and ended the day at their most 'unchanged' levels of the week (i.e. closest to the previous day's close). In addition, Friday's close was only 2bps away from last Friday's close. Translation: bonds did a GREAT job of QUICKLY getting into position for upcoming risks after LAST WEEK'S Brexit news. You'd be forgiven if you forgot about this one already, but I'm referring to the meeting that took place between Boris Johnson and the Northern Irish PM Varadkar. That meeting introduced the prospect of a last minute Brexit deal. Bonds jumped accordingly (perhaps with some help from the trade deal announcement the following day) and the waiting game began. As of tomorrow...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Strange Combination of Pre-Brexit Paralysis and Jumpiness

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yesterday brought the highest yields in a month as Brexit-related optimism swelled early in the overnight session. At issue: British PM Johnson and EU negotiators reached "a deal." Great! Right? Brexit is solved? But wait... British parliament would still need to sign off on the deal, and the news was quick to point out the relative impossibility of such a thing. As such, overnight market movement began to reverse course even before US markets opened. That brings us to today. Traders know that an easy passage of the current deal is unlikely. But they also know that the deal could be adjusted or debated in such a way that passage is not impossible. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the EU could respond in one of two ways if there's no deal by the end of the month (grant...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Even if Bonds Weren’t Ignoring Data, They’d Still Be Confused

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The bond market has a lot on its mind right now. 2019 is proving to be very different from other episodes of big, protracted rate trends. In most past instances, we can point to 1 key theme driving the momentum, with a few occasional supporting actors. Things are more complex and nuanced this time around as the usual suspects for rate inspiration seem to be taking turns in the driver's seat. This week (and perhaps last week, to some extent), Brexit is definitely in control. News of a new potential deal hit bonds overnight, but we bounced back after subsequent news that it would have a hard time getting enough votes to make it through Parliament in a special session this Saturday. Much of the brexit-related volatility was playing out right as this morning's economic data hit. Was this...(read more)

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